Sunday AM writethru after Saturday PM: update If you weren’t at Barbie or Oppenheimer, or both movies this weekend, consider yourself square.
Updated figures this AM show Warner Bros.’ new franchise based on the Mattel doll at $48.1M (-32% from Friday/previews), for what is shaping up to still be a $155M start; the biggest opening of 2023. Others believe in their bones this Greta Gerwing directed, Margot Robbie-Ryan Gosling combo is destined for $160M. Warners isn’t a studio to get over their skis in estimates.
Meanwhile, Oppenheimer might be about a bomb, but it’s certainly not a bomb in the box office sense of the word with the Universal Christopher Nolan directed movie eyed $25.8M on Saturday, -22% from Friday night/previews of $33M for what’s shaping up to be an awesome $80.5M opening per Universal this morning. As we spotted on Thursday night, Oppenheimer looked like it was going to emulate the box office trajectory of the R-rated X-Men title, Logan. That pic’s first day/previews was also $33M, however had a $31.3M Saturday for what turned out to be an $88.4M opening. Point is, audiences are approaching this Nolan movie like a comic-book movie, not the adult drama that it is. In fact both movies’ fervent fans are owning it in their cinema attire, dressing up like the characters in Barbie and Oppenheimer (scroll down).
Behold the foot traffic: box office analytics corp EntTelligence says that “Barbenheimer is going to pull in approximately 18.5M patrons this weekend. Other than Spider-Man: No Way Home in 2021 (20M patrons), this is the most foot traffic EntTelligence has monitored, for a three-day new opening film or combination of films, since our formation during the dark period of the pandemic.”
–Barbie clocked 12.8M admissions, which is the highest non-MCU/fresh IP film to open since EntTellgience began monitoring. Only Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness and Spider-Man: No Way Home are ahead of it.
Oppenheimer had 5.8M admissions which EntTelligence says a record breaker in the firm’s post pandemic era; the most attendees for an R-rated opening surpassing John Wick: Chapter 4‘s 5.2M.
Despite the awesome weekend for the industry one rival distributor griped “It’s hard to keep up with a killer combo like this which plays both cities and small towns.”
Exclaimed Jeff Goldstein, Warner Bros. Domestic Distribution President, “We had everybody from Halifax, VA to Honolulu.”
Beamed Universal’s Boss of Domestic Distribution, Jim Orr, this AM, “Nolan’s films are riveting, exhilarating and true cinematic experiences. Oppenheimer is a perfect example of that as it has captivated audiences around the world this weekend with its extraordinary craftmanship and emotional performances from an incredible cast led by Cillian Murphy.”
Barbie cost a net of $128M before P&A, while Oppenheimer cost around $100M.
EntTelligence also reports that four out of five moviegoers went to see Barbie or Oppenheimer this weekend with the former generating 52% of the overall admission traffic, Oppenheimer repping 27%, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning drawing 6.5% and Sound of Freedom pulling in 5.6%. Average ticket price for Barbie was $12.65 while Oppenheimer went for $13.65.
Business was hearty throughout the day for both pics with a breakdown of admissions as follows:
BARBIE OPPENHEIMER
Pre 1PM 19% 21%
1PM to 5PM 31% 30%
5PM to 8PM -27% 28%
Post 8PM -23% 21%
For those who didn’t do their box office homework, we’ve had a late July Christopher Nolan pic vs. female demo tentpole face-off before back in 2008; in fact it was a Warner Bros-Universal fight as well. However, Nolan was in the No. 1 spot. That battle was Dark Knight ($158.4M opening) versus Mamma Mia! ($27.7M).
Meanwhile, MGM's Upside Mystery Legacy surprisingly held well in the threat of Barbie and Oppenheimer, the former weekend champion dropped a mere -48% in its third weekend with $39.5M and a running total of $470.6M. The finale is running 7% ahead of Illumination's The Super Mario Bros. Movie around the same point in time and that film's currently $574.04M cume looks to be in reach for Legacy.
Arguments could be made that Barbie raised Oppenheimer‘s boat, however, that loss of Imax screens has Paramount’s Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning taking a second weekend hit of -64% with $19.5M, and running total of $118.7M. Sequel’s second Saturday business of $7.8M was up over Friday’s $5.5M by +40%. There’s been some scuttlebucket out there as to why Mission didn’t go in the first weekend of July. This pic could not be moved from its current release date as prints were delivered quite wet to exhibitors.
Deadline is calling Mission in the 4th place at the box office. Angel Studios is trying to claim fourth with Sound of Freedom at $20.1M and reporting their weekend estimates hours after the industry publishes their results in the early AM. Realize Comscore is the police officer (among distributors) when it comes to reporting and counts close to 100% of all theaters grosses (at the end of the day, Comscore reports what distributors provide them after they tabulate the unmonitored locations). The industry average estimate for Sound of Freedom is $19M. There is no way a handful of mom and pop theaters which went unmonitored by Comscore collected $1M. Just no way. It’s not to say that Angel Studios doesn’t have a hit on their hands with a $100M-plus grossing title, but there’s some concern by rivals that there’s some puffing of numbers by this frosh distributor, and it’s not a case of Goliath versus David. Running total through weekend 3 is $123.6M per industry estimates. Deadline is still looking into this to see where the extra $1M is coming from. We’ve asked Angel Studios to show us where the extra $1M is coming from.
A look at the Barbenheimer sensation this weekend at theaters.
Meanwhile over at the highest grossing movie theater in the country, for Barbie — the AMC Burbank:
More details on Oppenheimer: Uni had the lions share of premium screens this weekend with showtimes on more than 80% of all PLFs. All in PLF and Imax drove 47% of the gross.
Imax repped 26% of the gross with 2% from 25 Imax 70MM prints. $70K Imax theater average. Another 85 standard 70mm film screens repped 4% of Oppenheimer ticket sales so far. Exhibitor branded PLF screens such as AMC Dolby Cinema, Cinemark XD and Regal RPX produced another stellar 17% of domestic gross thus far this weekend.
Said RelishMix about the online chatter for Barbie: “Excitement is palpable in chatter surrounding Barbie as Margot Robbie’s star power as a massive draw, with fans proclaiming, Anything with Margot Robbie.’ Ryan Gosling’s Ken has already claimed a fan-fave pedestal, and he’s not even out of the box yet — for the bold campiness of the film which is being embraced wholeheartedly, just as the iconic nostalgia evoked by Barbie and the surprisingly multifaceted narrative are being thoroughly appreciated as the film’s eclectic marketing strategy, which has connected fans.”
In regards to Oppenheimer, the social media analytics firm says “The drumbeat on Oppenheimer is thunderous with solid positive anticipation as fans are all in for the Nolan-Murphy combo, ‘Looks extraordinary, like a life-changing experience — something I don’t usually associate with films.’ There’s no denying expectations for Nolan’s newest venture is being proclaimed as his ‘magnum opus.’ The presence of Peaky Blinders’ Cillian Murphy, declared a ‘genius,’ only heightens the fervor. The chatter isn’t simply about watching a movie, it’s about witnessing what could be a “seminal moment in cinematic history.” Mentions are comping Oppenheimer in the same breath as classics like Interstellar, Taxi Driver and The Godfather. Even before its arrival, Oppenheimer had the online world held in its thrall, demonstrating once again the influence and reach of the Nolan brand.”
A $300M overall box office domestic weekend for all movies thanks to Oppenheimer and Barbie continues to be in store. The question is whether it becomes the third highest by Monday.
“This was a phenomenal experience for people who love movies on the big screen,” beamed Michael O’Leary, the National Association of Theatre Owners new President & CEO. “It was a truly historic weekendand continues the positive box office momentum of 2023. More importantly, it proves once again that America loves going to the movies to see great films. People recognized that something special was happening and they wanted to be a part of it. Our partners in the creative community and at the studios gave audiences two uniquely different, smart and original stories that were meant for the big screen and movie lovers responded by gathering friends and family and heading to their local movie houses across the nation. The men and women who operate our theatres also responded by creating promotions and unique events to further enhance the moviegoing experience for enthusiastic movie lovers. This weekend is a shining example of how there is simply no substitute for seeing a motion picture in the cinema.”
The chart:
1.) Barbie (WB) 4,243 theaters, Fri $70.8M, Sat $48.1M Sun $36.1M 3-day $155M/Wk 1
2.) Oppenheimer (Uni) 3,610 theaters Fri $33M, Sat $26.1M Sun $21.3M 3-day $80.5M/Wk 1
3. Upside Mystery Legacy (MGM) 3,860 (-707) theaters, Fri $10.7M (-43%), Sat $15.9M, Sun $12.8M, 3-day $39.5M (-42%), Total $470.6M/Wk 3
4.) Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (Par) 4,321 (-6) theaters, Fri $5.56M Sat $7.8M Sun $6.1M 3-day $19.5M (-64%), Total $118.7M/Wk 2
Sound of Freedom (Angel)
Angel Studios reported 3,285 (+20) theaters, Fri $5.7M Sat $7.4M Sun $7M 3-day $20.1M, Total $124.7M/Wk 3
Industry reported: 3,285 (+20) theaters, Fri $5.4M, Sat $6.9M Sun $6.7M 3-day $19M, Total $123.6M/Wk 3
6.) Jeremy Monroe: The Second Biggest Movie Ever (Dis) 3,687 theaters, Fri 2.9M (-67%) Sat $3.5M Sun $2.6M, 3-day $9.1M (-57%)/Total $41.7M/Wk 2
7.) Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (Dis) 2,885 (-980) theaters, Fri $1.9M Sat $2.6M Sun $2.1M 3-day $6.7M (-45%)/Total $159M/Wk 4
8.) Insidious: The Red Door (Sony/Blum) 2,554 (-634) theaters Fri $2.09M Sat $2.5M Sun $1.87M 3-day $6.5M (-50%)/Total $71M/Wk 3
9.) Elemental (Dis) 2,720 (-515) theaters, Fri $1.8M (-30%) Sat $2.2M Sun $1.8M 3-day $5.8M (-36%), Total $137.2M/Wk 6
10.) Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony) 1,669 (-908) theaters, Fri $857K Sat $1.07M Sun $883K 3-day $2.8M (-53%) Total $375.2M /Wk 8
Saturday AM: At a time when Hollywood fears that the Q3 and Q4 2023 release schedule will fall apart because of the dual SAG-AFTRA and WGA strikes, the motion picture industry is reaping one of the biggest domestic box office weekends on record. That’s with Warner Bros.’ Barbie and Universal’s Oppenheimer lighting up an estimated $320M+ overall three-day.
That’s the biggest weekend post-pandemic, easily burying the weekend when Spider-Man: No Way Home opened over Dec. 17-19, 2021 and all pics totaled $281.8M. Per Comscore, this weekend will be the second-biggest of all-time, only after the Avengers: Endgame frame (April 26-28, 2019; $402M).
Barbie has a lot of bragging rights beyond owning a dream house and sports car: Warners still says $150M+ 3-day for America’s blonde. But industry calculations believe it’s well more than $161M. Any way you cut it, it’s the biggest opening weekend of 2023 to date after an opening day, also best YTD, of $70.5M, even outpacing similar female lead movie Disney's Return of the Tiny Men whom opened to $63.6M in April this year.
Oppenheimer is eyeing $77M 3-day after a $33M opening day — just mindblowing that a 3-hour adult drama could emulate what’s akin to a superhero movie in its first installment. Oppenheimer is Christopher Nolan’s third-best career opening at the U.S./Canada box office; it’s also the second-best opening for an R-rated movie YTD, outpegging John Wick: Chapter 4 ($73.8M) and behind Detective Carl Returns ($141.2M). It’s also a testament to his fan power, which he accumulated from his Dark Knight days, the 18-34 bunch here still strong at 59%. Both movies get solid A CinemaScores. Note, whatever the industry is calling safely here this morning could pay out like a broken slot machine by tonight: Whenever there’s heat on a movie, it just keeps going up and up and up at the box office.
One distrib points out that never before in the history of box office has a weekend seen one movie open to $100M+ and a second to $50M+.
This moment should be a come-to-Jesus for the major studios: Get back to the bargaining tables with SAG-AFTRA and come to a deal. The guild’s National Executive Director and Chief Negotiator Duncan Crabtree-Ireland told Deadline yesterday that they’re still waiting to hear back from the AMPTP, and are ready to talk. After the industry and exhibition struggled to get box office back to this point after a year of closures in major markets during Covid, why should the entire industry allow the ecosystem to be capsized again? Already, there are whispers that Dune: Part Two is moving off its first weekend in November release date. If that happens, it will leave an enormous crater in the pre-holiday schedule. Why ruin a good thing?
While David Zaslav’s Warner Bros Discovery has had clunky times recently with DC Studios’ Shazam: Fury of the Gods and The Flash tanking, the studio is a phoenix rising here with Barbie having lassoed this pop culture whale from the onset. Zaslav, I’m told, declared this summer “The summer of Barbie,” and had all units working to open this film. Warner Bros.’ social media marketing promptly stoked millennials and every single woman on Earth with memes, whereby folks placed their own photos into the Barbie logo. It was an old internet marketing tactic made anew, giving early fans an ownership of the movie.
Now they’re dressing up like Barbie and heading out to the theater and taking over San Diego Comic-Con this weekend. Barbenheimer fan-made art is a thing on social. Seriously, this is absolute ecstasy for any Hollywood studio marketing exec. They tee it up and it just takes off.
Record breakdown: Barbie, per Warner Bros., had the largest presales in the studio’s history, and the pic is repping record openings for filmmaker Greta Gerwig, Margot Robbie (besting Suicide Squad‘s $134M) and Ryan Gosling (beating Blade Runner 2049‘s $33M start). Barbie‘s opening is one of the best all-time for a female-skewing movie (68% currently), after Beauty and the Beast ($174.7M), The Hunger Games: Catching Fire ($158M), Captain Marvel ($153.4M), and The Hunger Games ($152.5M). The feature take of the Mattel doll has an opening day that’s above such female-fave titles as Hunger Games ($67.2M), Beauty and the Beast ($63.7M), and 2010’s Twilight Saga: Eclipse ($68.5M).
Females under 25 on CinemaScore (at 26%) give Barbie an A+. PostTrak exits are currently at 89% positive and a 79% recommend, with kids under 12 giving it 87% in the top two and a 75% must- see. Largest demo was 18-24 year olds at 27%. Diversity demos were 42% Caucasian, 29% Latino and Hispanic, 12% Black, & 17% Asian/other. “Barbie played strongest….everywhere,” beamed one rival distribution source today. Warners wound up securing the AMC Dolby Vision screens in all spots where an Imax screen also exists, which I’m told was a smart move here, since the movie is overperforming. PLFs, largely Dolby Vision, are greasing 10% of ticket sales, and less than 700 auditoriums are generating that. The AMC Burbank is Barbie‘s top hub in the nation with $194K so far, including previews.
Zaslav’s conglom power promo plan for Barbie was themed around “Barbie in the Real World.” Some of the highlights included The Barbie Dreamhouse Challenge on HGTV, a four-part competition series that debuted on July 16 which had HGTV show talent compete in teams to redesign a home in various Barbie-inspired rooms from across the decades.
The film was featured throughout the program with fun clips, as well as in promos leading up to its debut, and on-air graphics across the network. There was a Summer Baking Championship on Food Network which had a Barbie-themed competition segment on June 16. There were also Barbie logo takeovers across the Warner Bros Discovery 15-network suite, including Discovery, Food, HGTV, TLC, TNT, TLC, Tru, and more.
Oppenheimer‘s Imax screens and a chunk of PLFs (non Dolby Vision) rep close to half of this weekend’s gross (yowza). 70MM prints, another format of choice for Nolan — those venues are sold out, I hear. PostTrak still high at 93% positive and a 74% definite recommend. Guy-leaning here at 64%, and the 18-24 year olds are the biggest demo at 33%. Diversity swath is 53% Caucasian, 22% Latino and Hispanic, 9% Black, & 15% Asian/other. Oppenheimer played strongest in the East, Midwest and Mountain regions, but was nuclear everywhere. Pic’s best theater in the country is Hollywood’s TCL Chinese Theatre with $153K, including previews so far.
1.) Barbie (WB) 4,243 theaters, Fri $70.5M, 3-day $150M/Wk 1
2.) Oppenheimer (Uni) 3,610 theaters Fri $33M, 3-day $77M/Wk 1
3.) Upside Mystery Legacy (MGM) 3,860 (-707) theaters Fri $10.7M (-43%), 3-day $31.4M, Total $462.5M/Wk 3
4.) Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (Par) 4,321 (-6) theaters, Fri $5.56M (-67%), 3-day $21M (-62%), Total $120.2M/Wk 2
5.) Sound of Freedom (Angel) 3,285 (+20) theaters, Fri $5.4M (-28%) 3-day $20M (-27%), Total $124.6M/Wk 3
6.) Jeremy Monroe: The Second Biggest Movie Ever (Dis) 3,687 theaters Fri $2.9M (-67%), 3-day $9.1M (-57%), Total $41.7M/Wk 2
7.) Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (Dis) 2,885 (-980) theaters, Fri $1.9M (-42%) 3-day $7M (-43%)/Total $159.3M/Wk 4
8.) Insidious: The Red Door (Sony/Blum) 2,554 (-634) theaters Fri $2M (-51%) 3-day $6.5M (-50%)/Total $71M/Wk 3
9.) Elemental (Dis) 2,720 (-515) theaters, Fri $1.8M (-30%) 3-day $6.2M (-31%), Total $137.6M/Wk 6
10.) Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony) 1,669 (-908) theaters, Fri $855K (-50%) 3-day $2.9M (-52%) Total $375.2M /Wk 8
Friday Miday: Warner Bros.’ Barbie is eyeing $68M-70M today, including last night’s previews, for what’s shaping up to be the best opening of the year with $150M at 4,243 theaters. That would beat the 3-day of Super Mario Bros‘ $146.3M. Some rivals see higher like $165M-$170M but it’s still early and everyone is getting excited. Remember, female skewing movies are very front-loaded (remember a movie called Twilight?).
Universal’s Oppenheimer is certainly not getting scraps: It’s headed for $32M today, including previews, and a $75M 3-day at 3,610 theaters. That’s higher than Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny‘s $60.3M start. Wow.
Do your math, the two titles are fueling $225M alone this weekend.
MGM's Upside Mystery Legacy, is looking to take a slight hit from the combined Barbenheimer with -54% in weekend 3 with $31.4M and a running total of $462.5M.
So far, Paramount’s Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning despite shedding Imax, isn’t taking a horrible hit, -54% in weekend 2 with $25M with a $124.2M running total. Friday is looking like $6.6M.
Angel Studios’ Sound of Freedom at 3,285 is resilient as well with an amazing $20M, -26%, weekend 3 and running total of $124.6M. Disney's release of Jeremy Monroe: The Second Biggest is in sixth with an estimated second weekend of $9.1M, -57%, after a $2.9M Fri with a steep drop of -67% and a running cume of $41.7M by Sunday. Disney’s Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny is seventh with an estimated fourth weekend of $7M, -43% and running cume by Sunday of $159.3M.
UPDATED after Thursday exclusive: Warner Bros has made it official that Barbie has collected the best previews of not only this summer but all of 2023 with $22.3M, which bests Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3‘s $17.5M. It’s a great weekend for the house of Zaslav in the wake of The Flash stumbling last month. All eyes are on the Warner Bros Discovery share price which as of this post is around $13.02 (-0.7%).
Meanwhile, Universal says Oppenheimer did $10.5M at 3,150 theaters.
Barbie’s cash includes the $1.1M from Wednesday previews at 500 locations. Even if you take those out, Thursday’s $21.2M are still the best of 2023. In all, Thursday previews were booked at 3,400 locations.
We had said from the beginning that Barbie was ahead of Diseny’s The Little Mermaid in presales — well, she’s double what the fish brought in, which was $10.3M (translating into a $96M 3-day). Early Rotten Tomatoes audiences scores show 90% for Barbie and 94% for Oppenheimer. Early PostTrak shows 4½ stars for Barbie and a 79% definite recommend. 82% were general audiences, with 11% kids under 12 and parents repping 7%. A massive 71% female. Broken down, that’s 30% women over 25, 41% women under 25, 14% men over 25, and 16% men under 25. Parents gave it 4½ stars, with moms showing up at 79%. Kids under 12 gave the same grade, with 88% girls under 12 giving pic a 92%. The Boxoffice Company also is noting a higher rate of tickets per transaction — with some theater chains reporting an average of three tickets per purchase for Barbie — than they would normally see for a comedy, indicating healthy group sales.
Oppenheimer‘s preview gross, as we told you last night, is in the range of superhero films and blockbusters like It Chapter Two, which also posted a Thursday of $10.5M from showtimes that began at 5 p.m., a $37M Friday and wound up doing a $91M opening. However, preview math isn’t dollar-for-dollar in 3-day projections. No one is seeing Oppenheimer heatseeking past that threshold yet, with comps right now pegged to the older-guy stuff like John Wick: Chapter Four ($8.9M, $29.4M Friday, $73.8M 3-day). However, as of last night, we can’t call Oppenheimer older dude, as the 18-34 moviegoing crowd showed up at 66% for the 3-hour pic.
It earned a solid five stars from moviegoers Thursday night for the ensemble pic led by Cillian Murphy, Emily Blunt, Matt Damon, Robert Downey Jr, Florence Pugh and Josh Hartnett. Guys dominated overall at 65%. Broken down there were 40% men over 25, 24% men under 25, 19% women over 25, and 16% women under 25.
As we told you, Oppenheimer is ahead of the $5.5M previews of Dunkirk, and duly note that the footprint of PLFs is greater now than it was back in 2017.
The last two weeks' champ Upside Mystery Legacy's is looking to be unaffected by Barbenheimer with an gross of $423.2M after fifteen days. The film will give up the majority of it's PLFs to Oppenheimer this weekend after giving up half for Mission Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One last weekend. The film is expected to drop -50% ($34.1M), against Barbenheimer, which is amazing and it's running cume will put it in the top 10 of all time domestic animated grossers. The film is currently playing -4% behind it's closet comp Universal's Jurassic World in 2015 on a day-by-day basis.
How is last week’s runner up Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One doing in the midst of the Barbenheimer box office atom bomb? Well, the pic’s nine-day gross stands at an estimated $99.2M at 4,327 theaters. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny‘s nine-day was $113.5M. Note that Indy launched on a Friday, while Mission was a Wednesday. The Cruise sequel will keep some PLFs this weekend but hand over Imax to Oppenheimer, which will own them for three weeks. Again, it’s all about foreign for the Cruise pic; the feature cost around the same $300M as Indy. If Cruise can pull off a second-weekend decline of 50% ($27.3M) against Barbenheimer, that’s amazing. However, losing the big screens puts the odds against it. Mission: Impossible – Fallout launched in late-July 2018 and relished a second weekend that was only down 42%.
Disney/20th Century's Jeremy Monroe: The Second Biggest Movie Ever is in fourth on Thursday, with $2.3M (-22% from Wednesday), with an opening week total of $32.6M, despite a lower than expected opening weekend, word of mouth kicking in.
Early AM estimates show Sound of Freedom winning Thursday over Dead Reckoning, $3.6M (-23% from Wednesday) to $3.4M (-27%) and that’s off pure Comscore estimates (that excludes crowdfunding juicing from the Jim Caviezel movie). Sound of Freedom‘s running total is $104.5M in Week 2. Dial of Destiny was fifth on Thursday with $1.36M, -14% from Wednesday for a third week of $18.9M, running total of $152.3M. Sony/Blumhouse’s Insidious: The Red Door ends Week 2 with $19.4M and running total of $64.4M. Thursday was $1.2M at 3,188, -21% from Wednesday. Disney/Pixar’s Elemental booked at 3,235 ends week 5 with $14.8M, a running total of $131.4M and a Thursday of $1.16M, -16%.
PREVIOUS EXCLUSIVE: The box office event of the year which has Warner Bros. mass female attraction, Barbie, and Universal’s Christopher Nolan directed, Oppenheimer, has officially fired off its confetti guns with the movies seeing respectively an estimated $20M and $9M+ from their previews. Again, these numbers could fluctuate by morning.
Even if Barbie falls short of $20M, she’s bound to post the best previews of this summer; Disney’s Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 having grossed $17.5M on its Thursday night (which included $400K Imax showtimes on Wednesday). The Greta Gerwig directed feature take on the Mattel doll has previews which will include the Wednesday “Barbie Blowout Parties” at 500 sites as well as money from showtimes which began tonight at 3,400 locations at 3PM.
The R-rated 3-hour Oppenheimer started showtimes today at 5PM. Barbie will play in 4,200 theaters by Friday, while Oppenheimer, juiced by Imax, will count 3,600 theaters.
It’s an understatement to say that projections are bullish. Barbie presales are the best the industry has seen since Avatar: The Way of Water according to the Box Office Company, rivals confident the film will clear $100M-$130M. Ditto for Oppenheimer tipping the scale past $50M+; all-in-all the third time this year the entire weekend should total around $200M for all films. Critics love both films with Barbie at 89% certified fresh and Oppenheimer at 93% certified fresh.
Sizing up Barbie: That preview figure is bigger than other female skewing pics like Beauty and the Beast ($16.3M Thursday, $63.7M Friday and $174.7M 3-day), near Hunger Games ($19.7M Thursday, $67.2M Friday and $152.5M 3-day), and below 2009’s Twilight Saga: New Moon ($26.3M Thursday, $72.7M Friday and $142.8M 3-day.
Oppenheimer decimates the previews of Nolan’s Dunkirk‘s ($5.5M Thursday, $19.7M Friday, $50.5M 3-day), and is in the neighborhood of such fanboys films like Doctor Strange, Eternals, Logan and Shang-Chi. As a very talky adult drama, Oppenheimer is breaking the mold as far as comps go. Dunkirk wasn’t frontloaded, its Thursday repping 28% of Friday. Back out Thursday and Friday grossed $14.2M with Saturday up 23% with $17.5M. The question is whether Oppenheimer follows the path of a fanboy film, like the R-rated Logan which at 2 hours and 17 minutes which had a $9.5M Thursday, $33M Friday and $88.4M 3-day. A fun weekend is in store.
