NFL Week 7 picks and predictions: Dolphins get wild win over Eagles, Lions beat Ravens in thriller (2024)

If you saw some drunk old guys dancing around South Beach last weekend, don't be alarmed, that was probably just the 1972 Dolphins. They celebrate every year when the final undefeated team goes down and that's exactly what happened in Week 6.

Of course, it's also possible those drunk guys were just Browns fans who were celebrating their team's crazy win over the 49ers. Browns fans love to celebrate a big win and since their team only produces one of those roughly once every 14 years, you can certainly understand why they'd want to celebrate.

So will Browns fans be celebrating again this week? Let's get to the picks and find out.

Actually, before we get to the Week 7 picks, here's a quick reminder that you can check out the weekly picks from everyCBSSports.com NFL expert by clicking here. On a completely unrelated note, if you're like me and you like to sign up for random things on the internet, then I would highly suggest that you sign up for CBSSports.com's NFL newsletter, which I'm actually in charge of.

If you want to subscribe, all youhave to do is click here and enter your email address. Once you do that, you'll start receiving a daily NFL email from me and I promise it will be all NFL content and I won't include my individual review of each new Hallmark Christmas movie that's coming out this year. I have a different newsletter for that. I'm pretty pumped for "A Merry Scottish Christmas."

Alright, let's get to the picks.

NFL Week 7 picks

Detroit (5-1) at Baltimore (4-2)

1 p.m. ET (Fox)

I can't remember the last time the Lions played in a somewhat important game this late in the season. Sure, it's not actually that late in the season, but I'm still counting this as important because Lions fans haven't really gotten a chance to watch any meaningful games past the month of September over the past TWENTY YEARS.

You can try and point to last year when the Lions beat the Packers in Week 18 and yes, that was a huge win, but it meant nothing for the Lions from a playoff perspective because they had already been eliminated from postseason contention before that game kicked off.

For most of the past 20 years, if you mentioned the words "Lions" and "playoffs" in the same sentence, you would get laughed at mercilessly and then told to go home. For most of the past 20 years, it felt like the Lions were already eliminated from the playoff contention before Week 7 even rolled around, BUT NOT THIS YEAR. This year, the Lions are tied for the best record in the NFL heading into Week 7, which marks the first time since 1993 that they've had the best record or been tied for the best record this late in the season. If you are under the age of 30, YOU HAVE NEVER WITNESSED THIS.

The Lions are dominating because Jared Goff has somehow morphed into Tom Brady... or he might actually just be Tom Brady in a Jared Goff mask. At this point, I can't rule anything out. All I know is that Goff has been one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL over the past calendar year and I'm not sure the Ravens can slow him down.

Goff has more completions of 20 yards or more this year than any other quarterback in the NFL, which I didn't think was possible, because I thought every Dolphins play went for at least 20 yards, but I was clearly mistaken.

As good as Goff has been, this week will be his biggest test and that's because he'll be going up against a Ravens defense that is surrendering just 163.2 passing yards per game, which ranks second in the NFL.

On the flip side, I'm not sure how much stock I should put into that number considering who the Ravens have faced so far this season. In six games, they've gone up against two rookies who were making their first career start (C.J. Stroud, Dorian Thompson-Robinson), Joe Burrow with one calf, Kenny Pickett, Gardner Minshew off the bench after Anthony Richardson got hurt and a combination of Ryan Tannehill/Malik Willis in London.

I don't think the Ravens secondary has truly been tested this year and we'll find out this week just how good they really are. I think they're good, but I think Goff is better.

The pick: Lions 27-24 over Ravens

If you want a more analytical approach to your NFL picks, then I highly suggest that you check out the SportsLine Projection Model, which has been on fire this year. Check it out if you want to know which side to bet.

Atlanta (3-3) at Tampa Bay (3-2)

1 p.m. ET (Fox)

Heading into Week 7, the NFC South race has slowly turned into the football equivalent of the first Sharknado movie: None of it makes sense, I have no idea why I'm still paying attention to it, but I am, and now I'm oddly fascinated by what's going on so I'm going to have to stay tuned in so I can see how it ends.

The NFC South is the only division in the NFL where none of the teams have reached four wins yet. However, that will definitely be changing after this game, unless it ends in a tie, which actually seems completely possible based on everything I've seen from the NFC South so far.

This game is being played in Tampa, which is important to point out, because if there's one team I absolutely do not trust on the road, it's the Atlanta Falcons. Whenever the Falcons are playing, I ask myself two questions: Is Desmond Ridder starting? Is this game on the road? If the answer to both of those questions is yes, then I automatically pick against the Falcons.

Since the start of last season, the Falcons are 1-9 on the road and a big reason for that is because of Desmond Ridder, who has never won a road game in his career. The Falcons QB has made four starts on the road since his rookie season and he's gone 0-4. Not only is he winless, but he's only thrown a total of one touchdown pass in those four starts and not surprisingly, the Falcons are averaging just 10 points per game.

I'm starting to think that maybe the Falcons should let Taylor Heinicke be their starter in all road games and then let Ridder start every home game. If they go that route, there's no way they're not winning the Super Bowl. Please feel free to steal my idea, Falcons. Sometimes weird ideas work. Just look at Sharknado.

The pick: Buccaneers 20-16 over Falcons

Pittsburgh (3-2) at L.A. Rams (3-3)

4:05 p.m. ET (Fox)

Every time the Steelers take the field, I always assume it's finally going to be the week where Matt Canada magically turns around the offense, and every week, I end up being wrong. Why would I assume that Canada will eventually turn things around when every piece of evidence suggests that will never happen? I blame Mike Tomlin.

The Steelers coach has so much faith in Canada that I now have faith in Canada, which defies all reason.

The Steelers offense has been horrible since Canada took over, but instead of looking to replace him, Tomlin is doubling down and putting EVEN MORE FAITH in his offensive coordinator.

I don't want to say that Canada is the most unpopular person in Pittsburgh right now, but when fans at a HOCKEY GAME start chanting for you to lose your job, that's definitely not a good thing.

I think what I'm trying to say here is that I don't see the Steelers offense doing very well against the Rams, which means the only way Pittsburgh is going to win this game is if the Steelers defense turns this into a low-scoring slugfest. The problem for the Steelers is that they're surrendering 245.6 passing yards per game, which ranks as the eighth-worst in the NFL and that's not a good thing when you're about to face Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua.

Also, this game is being played on the west coast, which might as well be the Bermuda Triangle to the Steelers. Whenever they play on the west coast, it's like they forget how to play football. Under Tomlin, they've played 10 games in the Pacific Time Zone and they've gone 3-7 in those games.

The pick: Rams 23-20 over Steelers

L.A. Chargers (2-3) at Kansas City (5-1)

4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)

I'm not sure what the biggest mismatch is right now in the NFL, but I'm going to go ahead and say that it's the Chiefs versus any other team in the AFC West. Watching the other three teams in the division try to beat the Chiefs is like watching three baby giraffes try to fight off a Lion.

The baby giraffes are going to lose 99% of the time, just like the other AFC West teams seem to lose 99% of the time to the Chiefs. Since Patrick Mahomes took over as the Chiefs' full-time starting QB in 2018, Kansas City has gone 27-4 against AFC West opponents. Oh, and the Chiefs have also won 12 straight divisional games.

The Chiefs have won three straight against the Chargers and in those three games, they've averaged 30.3 points. And now that I'm thinking about it, the biggest mismatch in the NFL might be Patrick Mahomes against the Chargers passing defense. Through the first six weeks, the Chargers have surrendered an average of 289 passing yards per game, which is the WORST NUMBER IN THE NFL and now, they have to face Mahomes, who will be coming into this game off of 10 days of rest after playing on Thursday in Week 6.

The only reason I'm bringing that up is because the NFL schedule-maker clearly hates the Chargers. Not only are the Chiefs getting extra rest going into this game, but the Chargers aren't even getting a full week of rest because they had to play on Monday night in Week 6. They're on a short week, coming off an emotional loss and they have to play on the road.

A team coming off a Monday game should never have to face a team coming off a Thursday game, but as I said, the schedule-maker clearly hates the Chargers. I don't hate the Chargers, but I am going to pick them to lose.

The pick: Chiefs 30-23 over Chargers

Miami (5-1) at Philadelphia (5-1)

8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)

This is easily my favorite game on the schedule this week and that's mostly because it takes me back to my childhood when these two teams played in the Super Bowl. I can't remember all the details of the game, but I'm pretty sure a former Dolphins kicker kidnapped Dan Marino and the team mascot at one point, only to be foiled by a pet detective who later picked a fight with the Eagles mascot.

OK, so it turns out that's actually the plot of "Ace Ventura" and that these two teams have never met in the Super Bowl. My mistake. I'm old. My memories are getting fuzzy.

As for this game, I'm still not sure if the Eagles are the NFC's version of the Dolphins or if the Dolphins are the AFC's version of the Eagles, but I have come to the conclusion that Philadelphia and Miami are the same team.

• They both drafted a franchise QB in 2020
• They both used a top-10 pick on a receiver in 2021
• They both made a huge trade for a receiver in 2022
• They are now both tied for the best record in the NFL in 2023

If I didn't know any better, I'd say that the Dolphins are copying the Eagles or maybe the Eagles are copying the Dolphins. I can't tell. I probably need to hire someone to figure that out. I wonder if Ace Ventura is available.

This game feels like it's going to come down to how well the Dolphins offensive line can protect Tua Tagovailoa. If Tua is getting time to throw, he's going to torch the Eagles secondary. The Dolphins are averaging 316.8 passing yards per game this year, which is the most in the NFL BY FAR (No other team is even averaging 270 yards per game).

Although I think the Dolphins will be able to move the ball with ease, I also think the Eagles are going to have some success, which is why I think this game is going to be a shootout, and as a general rule, I will never pick against the highest-scoring team in the NFL when I'm trying to predict the winner of a shootout. In related news, the Dolphins are the highest-scoring team in the NFL.

The pick: Dolphins 34-27 over Eagles

NFL Week 7 picks: All the rest

Raiders 23-16 over Bears
Browns 20-17 over Colts
Commanders 19-16 over Giants
Bills 27-17 over Patriots
Seahawks 30-20 over Cardinals
Packers 24-16 over Broncos
49ers 31-20 over Vikings

BYES: Bengals, Cowboys, Titans, Jets, Panthers, Texans

Thursday night note:The Jaguars and Saints are playing on Thursday and there's a chance that Trevor Lawrence (knee) could miss the game, so I will be making two picks for that game, one for if he plays and one for if he doesn't.

With Lawrence: Jaguars 24-17 over Saints
Without Lawrence: Saints 20-17 over Jaguars

Last Week

Best pick: Last week, I predicted that the Patriots would lose to the Raiders in Las Vegas and guess what happened? The Patriots lost to the Raiders in Las Vegas. Now, did I know that Bill Belichick was going slam a tablet to the ground in anger at one point during the game? Of course I did. If you had to watch Mac Jones and the Patriots offense for six straight weeks, you'd also be slamming things on the ground.

I'm guessing the cost of that tablet is going to come out of Belichick's pay check.

Worst pick: I don't even need to cover my worst pick because we all know what it is. If you read my picks regularly, then you already know that I have no idea what I'm doing when it comes to picking the Titans. If you don't read my picks regularly, well, I have no no idea what I'm doing when I'm picking the Titans. Last week, I picked the Titans to beat the Ravens in London and that definitely didn't happen, which means I am now 0-6 picking Titans games this season.

Things have gotten so bad that I'm NOW LOSING READERS due to my Titans predictions.

The good news for me is that I won't be whiffing on my Titans pick this week and that's because they're on a bye. Please stay on a bye for the rest of the season, Tennessee.

Finally, if you guys have ever wondered which teams I'm actually good at picking, I'm going to start sharing that information with you now that we've got six full weeks of information. Here's a quick look at my best and worst teams when it comes to picks this year.

Teams I'm 6-0 picking this year (Straight up):Giants, Panthers, Packers (5-0)
Teams I'm 5-1 picking this year (Straight up):Cardinals, Falcons, Chiefs, Dolphins, Bills, Jets, Raiders, Buccaneers (4-1)

Teams I'm 0-6 or 1-5 picking this year (Straight up):Titans (0-6), Texans (1-5).

Every other team is somewhere in the middle.

Picks Record

Straight up in Week 6:9-6
SU overall:58-35 (1-11 picking the Titans and Texans, 57-24 picking everyone else)

Against the spread in Week 6:7-8
ATS overall: 47-43-3

You can find John Breechon FacebookorTwitterand if he's not doing one of those things, he's probably watching the first Sharknado.